MPM 2026: saúde democrática e pluralismo dos media sob pressão

A edição de 2026 do Media Pluralism Monitor surge num contexto de elevada incerteza, reforçando a urgência de respostas políticas e regulatórias robustas. No contexto europeu, Portugal está numa posição intermédia: surge novamente em 13.º lugar, com 49% de risco global, um nível médio baixo, mas à beira do médio alto. A Suécia lidera a tabela com 26% e a Hungria, ainda de Orbán, permanece no último lugar com risco alto de 75%. Ver texto-síntese no Público: https://www.publico.pt/2026/10/18/opiniao/opiniao/mpm-2026-saude-democratica-pluralismo-media-pressao-2191504

The European MPM general report is available here:

The Portuguese full report can be read in English or Portuguese at the following link:

The “two-step flow” and the resonance of online political commentary

The two-step flow theory, formulated by Katz and Lazarsfeld, described a communication system in which the media disseminated information and opinion leaders filtered, interpreted, and transmitted it to the public. Today, despite digital transformation, this logic still holds – not only through influencers but also in the comment sections of political news, where a new functional division between more active commentators and more passive readers can be observed. This is the subject of a paper now published: Han, J. (2026). Commenters and lurkers: Navigating the two-step flow of communication in online news discourse. New Media & Society, 28(9), 4566-4588. https://doi.org/10.1177/14614448251363954.

In digital environments, opinion-forming processes affect these two groups differently. Active users, who seek to influence others and interact with journalists and political actors, function somewhat like modern opinion leaders. Motivated to express their positions and influence debates, they are particularly sensitive to news bias that signals their political orientation. They consistently internalise these cues (partisan cue-taking) and remain largely indifferent to the content of other users’ comments. For them, reading and writing comments are interconnected activities that deepen engagement with news content but do not alter their positions.

In contrast, the lurkers – passive readers – mainly rely on the bias present in the comments. They infer the ‘climate’ of public opinion from the dominant political orientation in the comment sections and align their positions with what they perceive as the majority view. This process is explained by the bandwagon heuristic, which leads lurkers to interpret comments as indicators of broader public sentiment.

The results reveal a cascade process: news bias influences commentators, who reinterpret and disseminate these partisan cues; subsequently, lurkers shape their perceptions based on the comments these commentators produce. Thus, public opinion flows from a small group of active participants to a larger, passive audience, reinforcing the relevance of the two-step flow model.

This dynamic has ambivalent democratic implications. On the one hand, the cascade effect can promote civic engagement by exposing more users to political debate and encouraging participation. On the other hand, it reveals how vulnerable online discussions are to coordinated manipulation or visibility moderation, which functions as a new form of censorship. Real cases illustrate this risk: South Korean pro-government teams strategically posted favourable comments to influence the political environment; official Chinese propaganda flooded platforms with pro-government content to redirect attention and suppress dissent; and, for example, Russian troll campaigns during the 2016 US elections spread polarising narratives on decentralised platforms.

In light of these results, news portals and journalistic media should review their comment-curation algorithms. Rather than highlighting the most recent or popular comments, they should prioritise a diversity of political perspectives, mitigating polarising effects and offering lurkers a more balanced view of public debate. The New York Times model, which rigorously filters content and malicious messages, highlighting only high-quality comments in the NYT Pick section, is a promising example – although intensive moderation may limit the spontaneous expression of diverse ‘voices’.

In summary, this study highlights the multidimensional nature of public opinion formation in digitalised environments. Commentators and lurkers play distinct yet complementary roles: the former reinforce partisan cues and act as opinion leaders, while the latter rely on the perceived majority sentiment in the comments. This dynamic reaffirms the relevance of the two-step flow in the algorithmic era and emphasises both the potential of comment sections and their vulnerability to manipulation. Platforms that adopt balanced and inclusive moderation systems could transform these spaces into more resilient arenas for civic participation.

Inclusión y diversidad en el sistema mediático en Portugal

Acabam de ser publicadas, em livro, as Actas do XXXVI Congreso Internacional da Asociación Iberoamericana de Sociología de las Organizaciones y la Comunicación (AISOC), que decorreu no Chile, na Escuela de Negocios de la Universidad Católica de Valparaíso em julho de 2024, subordinado ao tema “Organizaciones, cambios tecnológicos y sociedades inclusivas”. A comunicação então apresentada e agora publicada: Cádima, F. R. (2026). Inclusión y diversidad en el sistema mediático en Portugal. In Becerra Castro, M. y Paz Becerra, A. (coords.). Organizaciones, cambios tecnológicos y sociedades inclusivas. Perspectivas interdisciplinarias sobre gestión, desarrollo y futuro digital, pp. 503-521. Santiago de Chile, RIL editores. ISBN: 978-956-01-1812-7.

O respetivo resumo do texto agora publicado, que em breve será editado em livro no Chile e também em Espanha: A pesar de que Portugal goza de una excelente evaluación internacional en los grandes sistemas de monitoreo del pluralismo y la libertad de expresión —especialmente el Media Pluralism Monitor en Europa y, a nivel global, el World Press Freedom Index —, lo cierto es que, en un análisis más profundo y específico de las dinámicas de pluralidad en los medios, por ejemplo en el caso de las grandes temáticas relativas a los problemas de la inclusión y la diversidad, verificamos que Portugal aún tiene, después de todo, un largo camino por recorrer. Esto se refiere a la necesidad de ampliar y robustecer las narrativas mediáticas en torno a esos temas y realidades cruciales en la contemporaneidad. Los informes de regulación de la Entidad Reguladora para la Comunicación Social y, en particular, el análisis profundo que realizamos sobre los contenidos de los dos canales públicos de la televisión portuguesa prueban las dudas que plantean los estudios en esta materia y que, en cierta medida, ponen en tela de juicio la evaluación global del país realizada por las entidades internacionales antes citadas.

Portugal: awaiting the promised Media Code (Código da Comunicação Social)

The 2026 Media Pluralism Monitor report identifies structural vulnerabilities in the Portuguese media sector and offers recommendations across four core areas. Here is a brief summary of some of these recommendations.

Fundamental Protection highlights the urgent need to approve the new Media Law Code and fully implement the national Media Action Plan. It recommends decriminalising defamation, adopting anti-SLAPP (Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation) legislation, and strengthening whistleblower protection. It also calls for a coordinated national strategy to combat disinformation and FIMI (Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference), with stronger transparency obligations for platforms and clearer reporting requirements for VLOPs (Very Large Online Platforms).

In Market Plurality, the report urges swift approval of the new Media Law Code and rapid discussion of the revised Media Transparency Law. The regulator (ERC) should strengthen oversight of commercial pressures on journalism and ensure greater public disclosure of media ownership. Public service media must fulfil their mission effectively, while private companies should innovate beyond traditional business models.

On Political Independence, the report calls for a robust public policy approach to address the media’s structural crisis, protect journalism, and combat political disinformation, including AI-generated content targeting younger audiences. Regulators must remain independent. The governance of Lusa and the restructuring of RTP require close scrutiny. Journalists should strengthen ethical standards, avoid publishing daily tracking polls, and promote greater methodological transparency to prevent distortions in public debate.

In Social Inclusion, the report recommends effective mechanisms for assessing equality policies, stronger support for local and regional media, full implementation of the National Media Literacy Plan, and improved systems to monitor and combat online hate speech. Media organisations should adopt gender-equality and diversity policies, and the regulator should raise minimum accessibility standards, including audio description.

The European MPM general report is available here:

The Portuguese full report can be read in English or Portuguese at the following link:

Platform power and media pluralism: reassessing regulatory and methodological strategies focusing on Portugal

This communication addresses the European Union’s long-standing failure to treat media concentration as a key democratic issue, a problem exacerbated by the rise of digital platforms, VLOPs, and generative AI. Despite recent regulatory efforts – EMFA, DSA, DMA, and the AI Act – the EU’s response remains fragmented and slow relative to technological advances, thereby allowing platform dominance, algorithmic gatekeeping, and disinformation to weaken media diversity. Using a mixed-methods approach that includes historical-legal analysis, a review of key literature, and 10 years of Media Pluralism Monitor data (2015–2025), the study examines the tension between concentration and diversity, using Portugal as a case study shaped by EU-level constraints. The paper also assesses new AI-supported methods and emphasises the need for deeper computational research to understand content dynamics. It concludes by calling for stronger, more coordinated regulation to protect democratic resilience and promote sustainable, diverse media ecosystems in the digital and post-digital age. Digital media, especially the news media, is a priority for strengthening control over biases and harmful practices that disrupt the public sphere and spread disinformation, thereby threatening traditional public discourse. This presentation examines how to manage this disruption and proposes a mixed-methods approach and in-depth research to achieve this.

Conference by F. Rui Cádima at the 25th European Conference on Research Methodology for Business and Management Studies – ECRM 2026. 6 August, Cape Peninsula University of Technology, Cape Town.

Between margin and otherness: the representation of the Brazilian community in the Portuguese media

This investigation seeks to encompass around thirty years of migration experience of the Brazilian community from Brazil to Portugal, a flow that currently exceeds half a million residents, that is, about 5 per cent of the Portuguese population. This research aims to reflect on how the media initially created a bias against this migrant community, mainly through biased and sensationalist journalistic practices, which hindered the integration and acceptance of Brazilian immigration by Portuguese society. It is primarily through reversing this bias and the intervention of official entities, with new public policies, support from non-governmental organisations and associations, and media originating within the community itself, that the new Brazilian immigrants have gradually regained a previously blurred public image and gained citizenship status, as well as recognition from their Portuguese ‘brothers’. The emergence of new critical situations, notably political polarisation and the growth of the far-right in Portugal, is contaminating the progress made so far and raising new concerns in this domain.

doi: https://doi.org/10.1590/1809-58442026124en

F. Rui Cádima, Senior Reviewer at MediAsia2026

As part of his role as a reviewer for The Asian Conference on Media, Communication & Film (MediAsia2026), Prof. Francisco Rui Cádima has been designated a “senior reviewer.” He will also present a paper titled “Media and Journalism Studies in a Post-Colonial Context: The Case of ‘Mães De Bragança’ and the Brazilian Community in Portugal.” The conference will take place in Kyoto, Japan, in November 2026. MediAsia2026 is organised in partnership with the IAFOR Research Centre at the Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) at Osaka University in Japan.

More info:

O “crime” de difamação nos media e a necessidade de revisão do Código Penal

No artigo intitulado “Difamação nos media e liberdade de expressão – modo de usar” (Público online, de 24 de março), F. Rui Cádima alerta para o facto de a legislação portuguesa – ao contrário das boas práticas europeias e das recomendações do Conselho da Europa e da jurisprudência do Tribunal Europeu dos Direitos Humanos – penalizar, com prisão, o “crime de difamação” (Código Penal, artigo 180.º). Defende, assim, que “os tribunais portugueses devem reequilibrar a proteção da imagem e da reputação com a liberdade de expressão e a liberdade de imprensa, reconhecendo que os jornalistas, em particular, desempenham um papel essencial no escrutínio público.” Assim, neste âmbito, “as decisões judiciais deverão tender a evitar penas pesadas e a privilegiar a crítica, a liberdade de expressão e de informação, em detrimento da defesa da honra, sobretudo quando está em causa o debate e interesse público.” O artigo está disponível no seguinte link: https://www.publico.pt/2026/03/24/opiniao/opiniao/difamacao-media-liberdade-expressao-modo-usar-2168718

“Liberdade de Expressão na Era Digital: Direitos, Deveres e Responsabilidades”, palestra de F. Rui Cádima


No âmbito do Fórum do XXII Cenáculo da Região de Santarém, Francisco Rui Cádima realizou uma palestra sobre o tema “Liberdade de Expressão na Era Digital: Direitos, Deveres e Responsabilidades”. O evento decorreu na Escola Básica Marcelino Mesquita, no Cartaxo, dia 21 de março.

Algumas ideias da comunicação: A liberdade de expressão na era digital enfrenta tensões entre direitos individuais, responsabilidades das plataformas e riscos sistémicos associados à desinformação, ao discurso de ódio e ao poder algorítmico. Embora se questione até que ponto as plataformas devem ser responsáveis pelo conteúdo dos utilizadores, o quadro jurídico português é claro: “Os utilizadores continuam responsáveis pelo que publicam.” Crimes como difamação (art. 180.º), incitamento à violência (art. 240.º) ou alarme público (art. 297.º) recaem sobre quem publica, não sobre os intermediários digitais. O regulamento da União Europeia, Digital Services Act (DSA), estabelece, contudo, algumas obrigações para as VLOPs — as grandes plataformas digitais: moderação de conteúdos ilegais, remoção após notificação, transparência algorítmica, auditorias independentes e restrições à publicidade dirigida a menores, entre outras. A fronteira entre moderação e censura é particularmente sensível. A moderação protege direitos fundamentais ao remover conteúdos ilegais, danosos ou dirigidos a grupos vulneráveis, mas aproxima-se da censura quando elimina opiniões legítimas, favorece interesses políticos ou económicos ou opera de forma opaca. A questão é que “a moderação de visibilidade online pode ser a ‘nova censura’.”

A ERC, o poder dos media e o princípio constitucional da igualdade de oportunidades

A eventual desconformidade de decisões da ERC (Entidade Reguladora para a Comunicação Social) com a necessária e rigorosa independência face ao poder dos media, ao sistema político e à Constituição pode ser equacionada no caso recente que envolveu os candidatos à Presidência da República e respetivos debates televisivos de novembro/dezembro de 2025 e janeiro de 2026, na primeira volta das eleições.

Público, 26 de janeiro de 2026.